Bitcoin’s link to U.S. stock indexes has been highlighted by turbulent macro developments, with BTC/USD reaching its lowest levels for March so far.
With U.S. equities going down, Bitcoin (BTC) broke past $43,000 after the March 3 Wall Street open.
On the open, stocks and Bitcoin are both down.
BTC/USD maintained within a small intraday range on March 3 according to data from TradingView.
Despite the fact that $43,000 had maintained as support overnight, traders were testing it as they looked for a potential bounce zone approximately $1,000 lower.
“If our bottom is in, it would be wonderful to see something similar here if our corrective structure that preceded the 3rd impulse wave from 10K to 60K+ was a triangle,” famous Twitter account Credible Crypto stated on March 2, connecting current behavior to the bull run that began in September 2020.
“Remember a longer base typically leads to a stronger impulse. Pullbacks on $BTC to 38K–42K are healthy.”
Others who earlier considered a little higher local peak may enter before the range-bound activity continues.
BTC/USD was about $42,500 at the time of writing, a low point for March.
Stocks were volatile on the day, with the S&P 500 down 0.7 percent a day after the US Federal Reserve gave the clearest hints yet about a probable crucial rate hike.
As Russia and Ukraine convened to begin additional negotiations, geopolitical upheaval focused on Europe remained the dominant macro force in play.
Is it true that the status of safe haven has returned?
As macro events unfolded, professional trading firm QCP Capital focused on Bitcoin’s potential edge against the largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum (ETH).
Bitcoin, the firm stated in a Telegram update to users on March 2, is reclaiming its safe-haven status, whereas altcoins cannot.”
“The attention on BTC was mirrored in the vol markets as well, with BTC’s 10d realized volatility being 4% higher than ETH’s (99 percent vs 94.5 percent ). According to anecdotal evidence, there has been significantly greater topside interest in BTC than in ETH,” it was written.
“This has caused the implied vol spread between BTC and ETH to drop back to lows of around 7%. With the recovery bounce in spot, implied vols have been trading softer as well. BTC 1-month implieds have fallen back to 65% from 80% highs.”
Regardless of the size and timing of the rate hike, QCP believes that “some downside risk” will persist in Q2 as a result of Fed policy.