Polymarket Odds Swing: Declining Confidence in Bitcoin ETF Approval

On January 3, betting odds on Polymarket regarding the approval of prospective spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) declined to 70%.

Polymarket indicated a “yes” response regarding approving a spot Bitcoin ETF by January 15, as the cryptocurrency was valued at $0.70 at 1:30 p.m. UTC on January 3.

According to Polymarket data and multiple other reports, the price of a “yes” outcome on January 2 was $0.89. According to the most recent data from Polymarket, the present price of “yes” is $0.84.

Currently, a total of $912,569 has been wagered by Polymarket users on this market; however, the exact number of individuals who have placed wagers remains unknown.

The decrease in Polymarket’s “yes” probabilities could be attributed to a contrarian report published on January 3 by Markus Thielen, an analyst at Matrixport.

Thielen posited that for political purposes, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) might reject every pending spot ETF.

He noted that several SEC Commissioners are Democrats, an organization that is frequently viewed as anti-cryptocurrency, and emphasized SEC Chairman Gary Gensler’s antipathy toward cryptocurrencies.

Furthermore, prospective applications do not satisfy a critical requirement, although Thielen failed to specify which requirement she was referring to. x

Nonetheless, Polymarket’s possibilities indicate a significantly high probability of receiving approval.

The current 84% probability is comparable to a forecast made by Bloomberg ETF analysts, which means a 90% likelihood that the SEC will approve at least one ETF by January 10, when it determines Ark Invest’s application.

Eric Balchunas, an analyst at Bloomberg ETFs, filed a rebuttal to Thielen’s report. He cited the SEC’s extensive collaboration with applicants and the support of at least three commissioners as indications of approval.

Polymarket potentially offers a more impartial perspective in comparison to both sources. Since user positions are utilized in determining Polymarket’s odds, they reflect the consensus of multiple individuals as opposed to that of a solitary individual.

In conjunction with a flash collapse of 7.9%, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) fell from $45,421 to $41,804 in hours as Polymarket odds declined.

Once more, it is possible that Thielen’s remarks played a role in that price decline. Nonetheless, some have cited Jim Cramer’s optimistic remarks regarding Bitcoin as a factor that could potentially depress prices.

Cramer has garnered a reputation for his frequent inaccuracies, which have the “Inverse Cramer effect,” whereby confident investors act in opposition to his predictions.

Since then, Bitcoin has recovered marginally, reaching $42,967 at 10:00 p.m. UTC. Any additional significant news concerning a spot Bitcoin ETF will likely cause further price fluctuations.